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Aaron Brown: How to Find the Truth in Bad Numbers

KEY MOMENTS

0:00 – Intro — Aaron Brown and Wrong Number
0:34 – The Soho Forum gun control debate — and who he's up against
3:45 – The proposition: abolish all restrictions on adult firearm ownership
4:48 – Lou on navigating gun laws across state lines (NJ → PA → NY)
7:25 – The wide cultural divide: Scranton airport vs. any other airport with guns
9:04 – RAND Corporation: of 28,000 gun control studies, only 20 weren't crippled by errors
10:04 – The smoking analogy — legislation running ahead of the evidence
12:15 – Gun control laws only burden legitimate owners — not criminals
12:43 – The Glock switch ban and the AR-15 — targeting the popular, not the dangerous
15:18 – "Trump is a fascist" — and you want him to take the guns?
15:42 – Stop calling it a gun problem. It's a crime problem.
17:47 – We can identify the 1% of kids likely to commit 20–30% of violent crime
19:31 – Genetic markers for violence — and why that's controversial
20:48 – The Nordic prison model — does it work, and could it work here?
22:09 – Immigration data: why lumping everyone together gets you bad answers
25:20 – Lou's joke about open borders (for immigrants like his dad, not his cousins)
25:39 – Aaron's Jewish smuggler ancestors — blocked from junk dealing by licensing laws
27:04 – Did US aid really save 92 million lives? The Lancet paper that can't add up
29:13 – They saved 114% of the people — including 46M in China, which gets no aid
31:22 – Most published research findings are false — and we've known since 2005
32:42 – DOGE cuts and the "millions are dead" narrative
36:15 – Three red flags that tell you a statistic is BS
39:18 – Wonder Bread's "12 ways" — nobody ever wrote them down
40:18 – Outro — Wrong Number and the Soho Forum debate

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Aaron Brown knows how to find the truth in bad numbers. He joins Lou to talk about gun control research, The Lancet paper that claimed US aid saved 92 million lives, and the three red flags that tell you a statistic is BS.

We also get into why, out of 28,000 gun control studies, the RAND Corporation found only 20 that weren't statistically crippled, the smoking analogy and legislation that runs ahead of evidence, why gun laws burden legitimate owners and not criminals, why we have a crime problem and not a gun problem, and Wonder Bread's motto "Helps build strong bodies 12 ways," which nobody ever actually wrote down.

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